June 15th, Tehran, Iran

As the only actual nuclear armed country in the Middle East, IsraelThe deterrent power of 90 nuclear warheads is built upon“Nuclear ambiguity”On top of strategy. This nuclear policy, which neither acknowledges nor denies, evades international sanctions while maintaining strategic advantages over neighboring Arab countries. However, the continued advancement of Iran's nuclear program has completely shaken this balance. followIsrael, which was deeply mired in survival anxiety since its founding in 1948, has always adhered to“strike first”The philosophy of safety.1967“The Six Day War”The lightning victoryDestruction of Osirak, Iraq in 1981Nuclear reactorThe 2007 airstrikes on Syrian nuclear facilities demonstrated Israel's zero tolerance towards potential threats to its survival.

Emergency personnel carry out rescue work at a missile attack site in central Israel

But facing Iran's deep undergroundEven the most advanced underground bombs are ineffective at the 800 meter Fordo nuclear facility. Although the air strikes in 2025 severely damaged some of Iran's nuclear facilities, they could not eradicate its nuclear capabilities and instead stimulated Tehran to accelerate its uranium enrichment program“Unable to break, unable to scare”The dilemma marked by traditiondeterrence theoryThe failure in the new era.

Built after the Islamic Revolution in Iran“Resistance axis”Strategy to elevate nuclear capabilities to the level of civilization rejuvenation. In the political narrative of Tehran, nuclear technology is not only a security guarantee, but also a symbol of the revival of Persian civilizationAnd alsoIt is a key bargaining chip to break Western hegemony and reshape regional order. Former President Ahmadinejad“Nuclear technology is Iran's inalienable right”The declaration expresses the ancient civilization's persistent pursuit of a modern power. Despite facing severe international sanctions, Iran still shapes its nuclear program as“National Dignity Project”To deeply bind it to the legitimacy of the regime.After the outbreak of the conflict in 2025, Iranian citizens gathered outside the attacked nuclear facilities to protest, vividly demonstrating the special status of the nuclear issue in Iranian society.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Bagai

This fundamental cognitive difference puts both parties in a typical security dilemma. Israel sees Iran's nuclear program as“The Second Massacre”Potential tools must be prevented at any cost; Iran, on the other hand, sees nuclear capability as the fundamental guarantee against foreign interference, while Israel's military strikes have actually strengthened it“Only stronger can survive”The belief. This irreconcilable contradiction renders the deterrence theory based on rational calculation completely ineffective, as Iran's decisions are not only based on practical interests, but also deeply influenced by religious ideology; And Israel firmly refuses to accept any form of“Nuclear equilibrium”.

The more profound impact is that this conflict is triggering a dangerous chain reaction of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East region. President Erdogan of Türkiye has repeatedly asked:“Why can Israel have nuclear weaponsMuslimcountryno way?”Türkiye, which has mature nuclear infrastructure such as the Akuyu nuclear power plant, is likely to launch a weapons grade uranium enrichment program when regional security deteriorates. Saudi Arabia has made it clear that:“If Iran has nuclear weapons, we will follow up”This traditional ally of the United States has begun cooperating with China to build uranium enrichment facilities in preparation for a possible nuclear weapons program. Although Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and other countries have not yet publicly sought nuclear weapons, they are actively expanding their civilian nuclear programs to reserve space for future policy shifts.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu

This trend of nuclear proliferation poses a serious challenge to the international nuclear non-proliferation system.Treaty on the Non Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsThe inherent contradiction was exposed in the Iran Israel conflict: the five permanent members of the Security Council can legally possess nuclear weapons, but demand that other countries give up this right. If Iran eventually breaks through the nuclear threshold,The NPT system will exist in name only, and more countries may follow suit and withdraw from the treaty. The geopolitical confrontation between major powers such as the United States and Russia has further paralyzed the United Nations Security Council in dealing with this crisis.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei

From the perspective of civilization evolution,The 2025 Iran Israel conflict represents the ultimate showdown between two paths of modernity. Israel represents a modernity characterized by technological superiority and military hegemony, while Iran attempts to construct an alternative modernity based on ideology and resistance networks. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of this conflict, the Middle East region is already standing at the threshold of the nuclear age. If the international community fails to establish a more inclusive security framework in a timely manner, the entire region is likely to slide towards a nuclear race involving multiple countries, with devastating consequences that could far exceed the Cuban Missile Crisis of that year.

History has repeatedly proven that there are no true winners in the confrontation shrouded in nuclear shadow, only survivors of varying degrees. Faced with this dangerous crossroads, human civilization needs to demonstrate wisdom beyond confrontation, otherwise, the Middle East could become the epicenter of a global nuclear disasterdrop.