WhenAIThe infrastructure arms race of the super cycle has evolved from data centers and energy infrastructure to storage chips, and the focus of capital market questioning has quietly shifted from "who is next" to "who will become the existence beyond storage". Recently, Goldman Sachs has pointed out in multiple research reports that multilayer ceramic capacitors（MLCC）Has becomeAIInfrastructure ContinuingGPUThe third largest material cost item after memory, and for the first time, it is classified as "new memory" - a passive component segment market that is standing at the starting point of a cycle of both quantity and price increases. Goldman Sachs analystDaiki TakayamaJudging, currentlyAIdrivenMLCCThe cycle will be the largest and longest in history, and is still in its early stages. What supports this judgment is not the short-term catalysis of market sentiment, but the deep restructuring that is happening at the level of supply and demand structure: aAIInside the server rack, the highest requirement issixtyTen thousand piecesMLCCCollaborative work, while the annual growth rate of production capacity in the entire industry is only slightly higher than10%.

Multilayer ceramic capacitor, full English nameMultilayer Ceramic Capacitor, abbreviated asMLCC, is the most widely used chip passive component in electronic circuits, with a market share of up to65%Due to its huge usage and extremely low unit price, it is known as "electronic industry rice" in the industry. Its manufacturing process is like "stacking a thousand layers of cake": ceramic dielectric films with internal electrodes are stacked layer by layer in a staggered manner, and after high-temperature sintering, an integrated monolithic structure is formed. Then, metal external electrodes are welded on both ends to form the so-called "monolithic" structure. Depending on the medium material,MLCCMainly divided intoIClass (such asC0G/NP0）AndIIClass (such asX7R、X5R）There are two main types, the former has high stability but small capacity, while the latter has high volumetric efficiency and large capacityAIHigh capacity and miniaturized products that are heavily demanded by servers. It has a fundamentally different operating logic from ordinary batteries - the characteristics of batteries are "high energy density, slow release", charging for hours and discharging for tens of minutes;MLCCOn the contrary, although the stored power is small (measured in microfarads), it can complete complete complete charging and discharging in milliseconds or even lower time scales, with a response speed far exceeding any battery type energy storage component. At the same time, it has the advantages of good high-frequency characteristics, polarity free, and easy miniaturization and integration. Like a miniaturized and ultra fast reaction energy buffer library.

It is precisely this characteristic that makesMLCCinAIThe server plays an irreplaceable core role. WhenAIWhen dealing with large-scale parallel operations, the processor often experiences a sudden surge from zero load to peak power consumption within microseconds, and then instantly returns to zero after the operation is completed. This extreme pulse like load change makes it impossible for traditional power management systems to respond in a timely manner.MLCCDirectly attached to the configurationAIAround the chip, stored electrical energy is immediately released during peak demand to fill the voltage gap and prevent server downtime due to voltage drops. At the same time, high-frequency electrical noise is filtered to ensure the integrity of data transmission. Goldman Sachs analystNelson ArmbrustIt is pointed out that it is precisely this capacitor network arranged closely to the chip that enablesMLCCIn the currentAIThe server material list has become a continuationGPUThe third largest cost item after memory. A top-level machineAIIn server racks, a maximum of approximatelysixtyTen thousand piecesMLCCCollaborative work is necessary to ensure the stability of the entire computing power base system.

Goldman Sachs

ifMLCCThe indispensability of technology is a necessary condition for it to become a "new storage", and the extremely sharp mismatch between supply and demand is a sufficient condition for the launch of this market trend. Analyst at Goldman SachsAllen ChangIt seems,MLCCThere is a structural ceiling on the supply side of the industry that is almost "locked in": the annual growth rate of industry capacity is only slightly higher than10%Moreover, the equipment and core raw materials are highly dependent on internal production by the enterprise, and the pace of expansion is limited by internal engineering expert resources, making it difficult to significantly accelerate. The data indicates that the current Murata TakarongMLCCThe delivery time has been extended toeighteentotwentyweekSamsung MotorsFurther achieve delivery time with Guoju's high-capacity productstwentytotwenty-twoDuring the week, the capacity utilization rate of major manufacturers generally exceeded96%Some leading enterprisesAIThe number of order inquiries has doubled compared to the existing production capacity.

MLCC structure

However, on the demand side,AIThe shock waves brought by servers are completely different in magnitude. Goldman Sachs estimates that,AIServer forMLCCThe demand comes fromtwo thousand and twenty-fiveFrom fiscal year totwo thousand and thirtyThe fiscal year is expected to increase by approximatelyfour point threeDoubling, with an average annual compound growth rate of34%The market size ranges from approximatelytwo thousand one hundred and fiftyBillion yen expanded to approximatelynine thousand and two hundredBillion yen. NVIDIA's Next GenerationVera Rubin VR200 NVL72The rack'sMLCCUsage approximatelysixtyTen thousand pieces, more than the existing onesGB300The platform is higher than30%above; Morgan Stanley'sBOMFurther disassembly reveals that,VR200Single rackMLCCThe value is approximatelyfour thousand three hundred and twentyUSD, compared toGB300ofone thousand five hundred and thirtyUSD growth of approximately182%This growth is non-linear - the next generationRubinThe platform's single board capacity has increased fromGB300The agreementsix thousand and five hundredDouble the size totwelve thousandAnd it will continue to accelerate in the future. Along with the soaring demand, the electrification of automobiles continues to drive the demand for high voltage and large capacityMLCCUnder the dual pressure of demand, customers in the consumer electronics field, despite facing a decline in their own demand, have begun to actively seek long-term supply contracts to lock in production capacity in advance to prevent future supply disruptions.

MLCC production process diagram

andHBMcrowd outDRAMThe logic of production capacity is highly similar,AIHigh end requirements for serversMLCCThe sintering capacity consumed in the production process of high capacity and high pressure resistant products is tens of times that of conventional low capacity products, and each high-end productMLCCThe output means multiple ordinary onesMLCCThe sacrifice of production capacity has led to a sharp contraction in the supply of conventional products, resulting in a distinct market formation“KThe pattern of differentiation of types. Price signal has sounded the alarm comprehensively: MuratafourmoononeFrom now on, yesAIServer and high-end car specificationsMLCCProduct price increase15%to35%，Solar induced electricityYufiveFollowing the monthly price increase, Samsung Electric is also considering a new round of price adjustments,AIrelatedMLCCThe spot price has cumulatively increased by about20%The Japanese Ministry of Financefivemoontwenty-eightThe trade statistics released on the day further confirm this trend:fourmoonMLCCThe average export price has increased year-on-year16%The year-on-year increase in export value reached28%The trend of both quantity and price rising has spread from the micro level of the industry to the macro level of trade.

Solar induced electricity

Goldman Sachs judges,MLCCThe price increase cycle is significantly later thanDRAM、NANDMemory andABFcarrier boardKey components such as copper-clad laminatesAIComponents, but withABFandCCLIn parallel,MLCCin allAIThe components and materials have the longest upward price potential and continuity. According to Goldman Sachs' analytical framework,MLCChas beentwo thousand and twenty-sixExpected changes in contract prices for similar products in the year from previous contracts0%Up to0%to5%(Note that this is the expected annual contract average price, which lags behind the already rising spot price), and the actual increase in the future may far exceed this range. The calculation of its profit elasticity is also highly impactful: only5%The increase in the average price of products can theoretically be attributed to Muratatwo thousand and twenty-sevenThe increase in operating profit for the fiscal year is approximately13%Increase the operating profit of solar induced electricity by up to37%.

Murata TakarongMLCC production base

In terms of competitive landscape,AIHigh end requirements for serversMLCCThe market access threshold is extremely high. At present,Murata ProductionsThree giants, Samsung Electric and Sunac, have monopolized this niche field globally, with a combined market share of over70%Among themAIHigh capacity serversMLCCThe concentration of patterns andHBMThe market is highly similar, with Murata and Samsung Electric holding a combined share of approximately90%To cope with the unexpected increase in orders, Muratatwo thousand and twenty-sixyearfiveAnnouncement of additional additions within two yearseight hundredBillion yen capital expenditure to expand high-end high-capacity production lines in Japan. At the same time, domestic manufacturers such as Fenghua High tech and Sanhuan Group have achieved breakthroughs in stacking technology, and the gap with top Japanese manufacturers continues to narrow. withMLCCStrategic value is being redefined, and its industrial logic is shifting from traditional strong cyclical attributes toAIThe long-term growth track driven by automotive electronics. Goldman Sachs' Construction of AsiaMLCCAlthough the thematic stock basket has started to strengthen recently, compared to other popular stocksAIThere is still significant room for improvement in the theme.

Review the entireAIThe evolution path of infrastructure and the alternating supply and demand bottlenecks have given rise to one market focus after another: data centers have exploded first, energy infrastructure has followed closely, and storage chips have completed the ultimate interpretation of "Davis Double Click" with astonishing gains. Nowadays, when it comes to high-endMLCCThe delivery time has been extended totwentyOver the past week, Japanese giants have successively raised prices, and Japan's export volume has grown by nearly 30%, proving the industry's prosperity. Goldman Sachs willMLCCThe determination of "new storage" is not a casual metaphor - it revealsMLCCStanding at the starting point of a cycle of both quantity and price increases, just like what storage has experienced before. in thisAIIn an era where the computing power arms race is still accelerating and escalating, this closely follows everyGPUThe micro capacitor next to it is telling a production capacity mismatch story with its own volume price curve that is comparable to storage chips. As Goldman Sachs said, this will beMLCCThe largest and longest upward cycle in industry history, and everything has just begun.