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Scenery surpasses natural gas: the 'power transfer' of the global energy system and its historical inevitability
Release time:2026-06-01 Source: Qingqiao Number of views:

In April 2026, the global energy system will usher in a highly symbolic moment. According to data released by Ember, an independent energy think tank based in London, the total electricity generated by wind and solar power exceeded natural gas for the first time on a monthly scale. Wind and solar power generation reached 531 terawatt hours, accounting for 22% of global electricity, while gas power generation was 477 terawatt hours, accounting for 20%.Just one year ago,The data for the whole year of 2025 shows that renewable energy generation has surpassed coal for the first time, becoming the world's largest source of electricity. Renewable energy accounts for 33.8% of global electricity generation, while coal-fired power generation accounts for 33.0%.These two historic leaps were not accidentalSeasonal issue "- Although April is indeed the month with better wind and solar resources in the northern hemisphere, five years ago, the amount of gas-fired electricity generated in the same month was almost twice that of wind and solar.This transformation marks the acceleration of the global power system's transition from the old order centered on fossil fuels to a new pattern dominated by clean energy. This is not only a victory of technological progress, but also a profound oneThe transfer of energy power.

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Qinghai Photovoltaic Power Generation Base

To understand this power transfer, we first need to face a fundamental fact: this is not a victory of environmental policies, but a choice of market economy. In the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity for solar and wind energy has decreased by approximately90% and 70%. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), a global financial information and data company headquartered in London, clearly stated in its "Long term Outlook Report on the New Energy Market" released in May 2026 that solar energy will become the world's largest power source in the next six years, and this transformation will be purely based on economic factors.This judgment is supported by real-life cases. For a large reliance on imported liquefied natural gas(For countries with LNG, wind and solar power are not only clean energy sources, but also the 'cheapest sources of electricity'. Ember's global power analyst Kostantsa Rangelova is blunt about this: "For many importing countries, LNG power generation is increasingly unable to compete with wind and solar power. ”The data for 2025 further confirms this trend: the growth of global clean electricity is sufficient to meet all the new electricity demand that year, which is the first time in history. Among them, solar energy alone meets 75% of the global increase in electricity demand.This means that clean energy has evolved fromThe transformation from "substitutes" to "the first choice for incremental supply" is the core economic foundation of power transfer.

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Liquefied natural gas transport ship

If price advantage is what attracts countries to shift towards clean energyCarrots ", then geopolitical turmoil constitutes a powerful" stick ". The data for April 2026 coincided with the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz in the first full month. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris, bluntly stated, "We are currently facing the largest energy security crisis in world history. I believe this will reshape the global energy investment strategy, similar to the significant changes experienced by the energy industry after the oil crisis in the 1970sThis shock completely overturned the traditionalEnergy Security ConceptIn the past, energy security meant ensuring smooth oil and gas sea routes and establishing strategic reserves; ButThe crisis of 2026 has exposed the fragility of this model.

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At the same time, the "risk resistance" attribute of clean energy has been significantly amplified. Solar and wind energy are "localized" energy sources that do not rely on cross-border transportation and are not threatened by geopolitical disruptions.BNEFThe report points out that for Asian economies such as Vietnam, Japan, and India, where energy imports account for 3% to 6% of GDP, developing renewable energy is a strategic choice to reduce economic vulnerability.Taking the European Union as an example, its current expenditure on energy imports accounts for2.3% of GDP, but it is expected that this proportion will rapidly decrease in the next decade.This logical shift has profound significance: energy security is shifting fromShift from 'ensuring supply' to 'reducing dependence'. Relying on fossil fuels is equivalent to entrusting the economic lifeline to the unpredictability of geopolitics, while shifting to local clean energy is gaining "energy sovereignty". This is the deep logic behind the transfer of energy power from oil producing countries to technology owning countries, and from resource endowments to manufacturing capabilities.

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The third pillar of power transfer is that the structure of global electricity demand growth has been completely reshaped.By 2025, the total global demand for electricity has increased by 2.8%, or 849 billion kilowatt hours.This growth is driven by population growth, income increase, and a particularly critical factor——Electrification of data centers and terminals - driven by. According to BNEF data, by 2025, the global data center load will reach 84 gigawatts, with electricity consumption of approximately 500 terawatt hours, accounting for 1.9% of global electricity demand and a year-on-year increase of 20%.In the past, such demand growth inevitably drove fossil fuel consumption. butThe situation in 2025 is completely different: solar energy meets 75% of the new demand, clean energy covers the entire increment, and fossil fuel power generation even slightly decreases by 0.2%.This isThe strongest evidence of decoupling is that economic growth and rising electricity demand no longer necessarily lead to an increase in fossil fuel combustion. Adia Rolla, Ember's Global Head of Power Insights, referred to this change as“The era of clean growth”The scale of clean energy is rapidly expanding, enough to meet the growing global demand for electricity and keep fossil fuel power generation stable... The momentum we see is no longer just a vision, it is becoming a structural reality

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Despite the clear trend, we still need to be wary of the pitfalls of linear thinking. The transfer of energy power is not simpleThe end of the oil era marks the beginning of a new stage where new and old energy sources intertwine, compete, and coexist. Brazilian scholar Maria Luisa Falcon Silva pointed out that "the energy transition is far from eliminating international competition, but has become a part of it." Oil is still shaping logistics, chemicals, aviation, and military power, while competition around batteries, key minerals, electric vehicles, and grid technology is giving rise to a new type of international competition.

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Offshore oil extraction

In the short term, transformation is also full of contradictions. In the energy crisis of 2026, some countries were forced to restart coal-fired power plants due to high gas prices, which went against their carbon reduction goals in the short term. But according to Ember's analysis, there is currently "no evidence of large-scale gas to coal conversion on a global scale"This reminds us that energy transition is not a straight line, but a process full of trade-offs and painsThe 'Mixed Age'. But the long-term direction has been determined. According to BNEF's "Economic Transition Scenario" forecast, by 2050, electricity will meet two-thirds of the new energy demand, while natural gas will only account for 25%.The estimated cost of solar power generation isIn 2035, it will continue to decline, and photovoltaics will become the world's largest source of electricity by 2032.

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The milestones of renewable energy surpassing coal in 2025 and wind and solar surpassing natural gas in April 2026 jointly reveal a fact: the "fossil fuel era" of the global power system is coming to an end. This is not a victorious declaration of environmentalism, but a structural change based on the triple logic of cost, safety, and technology. The essence of this transformation is the paradigm shift of the energy system from "resource dependent" to "technology dependent". In the old order, power belonged to those countries and enterprises that had oil and gas resource endowments; In the new landscape, power will belong to entities that possess solar panels, energy storage systems, smart grids, and key mineral refining technologies. This is a more decentralized power structure that may also bring about new dependencies. For decision-makers and investors, the signal for April 2026 is clear enough: the incremental story of fossil fuels has come to an end, and the replacement of clean energy stocks is accelerating. As stated by Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, this crisis has permanently changed the strategic direction of global energy investment.The transfer of energy power is irreversible.

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