good morning

Auxiliary vehicles depend on each other, lips are lost and teeth are cold

Today in history:205 years ago, British nurse Florence Nightingale was born. The silhouette of her carrying a lantern to patrol the night, crossing the bloody twilight of the 19th century, still questioning the medical treatment of life in this world: true medical civilization is not a single dimensional advancement of technology, but an eternal chord of human warmth and professional rationality.

Political Dynamics

01Germany announces choice of party as far right organization

The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has announced that the German Alternative Party as a whole has been recognized as a "far right organization". Subsequently, German intelligence agencies will implement stricter monitoring of the Alternative Party, including the use of human intelligence, financial investigations, and communication surveillance measures.

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• Extreme right-wing organizations refer to political groups that hold extreme conservative positions, with core characteristics including extreme nationalism, xenophobia, and authoritarian tendencies. In terms of behavior, there is even a tendency towards violence.

• The core propositions of the German Alternative Party include: strong anti immigration and advocating for "Germany First"; Doubting EU integration and calling on Germany to withdraw from the eurozone and regain sovereignty; Promote nationalism; Oppose progressive issues such as gender equality and climate policies, and defend traditional values. The party has been listed as a "far right suspect" by the Federal Constitutional Protection Agency since 2021 and is under surveillance by intelligence agencies.

• In recent years, the popularity of the German Alternative Party has soared. In the February general election this year, the party received over 20% of the vote and ranked second.

• The German Alternative Party is labeled as a far right party, which is an instinctive response of the democratic system to crises. But history has shown that suppressing populism alone cannot eliminate it. Only by repairing a torn society can we drain the swamp of extremism. When 20% of voters would rather choose 'enemies of democracy', perhaps we should ask: did these people betray democracy, or did democracy betray them first?

Military strategy and tactics

01The United States and the Houthis reached a ceasefire agreement

US President Trump issued a statement stating that the Houthi armed forces supported by Iran have agreed to stop attacking US ships passing through the Red Sea, and the US military will cease airstrikes on the other side. But Houthi leader Muhammed stated that they will not stop their attacks on Israel and will continue to support the people of Gaza.

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• The Houthis currently control about two-thirds of Yemen's Red Sea coast and occupy Sana'a and the important Red Sea port city of Hodeidah. Since the beginning of the new round of Israeli Palestinian conflict, the Houthis have launched attacks on passing Israeli and American ships, and the United States has also launched large-scale airstrikes against the Houthis.

• The ceasefire between the United States and the Houthis is essentially a mutual test between two actuaries - the United States wants to preserve the Red Sea route with the minimum cost, while the Houthis want to exchange international recognition with the minimum cost. This agreement will not bring lasting peace, it is just a brief silence before the next storm.

Economic Observation

01ASEAN manufacturing industry shrinks for the first time in 16 months

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• The average global Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing in 2024 is below the boom bust line, making it difficult for ASEAN manufacturing, as an outward oriented economy, to stand alone.

• The manufacturing industry in ASEAN has long relied on foreign investment and imported intermediate goods, and its industrial structure exhibits low-end lock-in characteristics. The rising production costs, including energy, logistics, and labor costs, coupled with supply chain blockages, further weaken the profitability of enterprises.

• When the ASEAN manufacturing industry reports its first contraction in 16 months during the spring cold of 2025, this recession is not a cyclical fluctuation, but an inevitable result of the resonance between global value chain restructuring and regional economic model deficiencies. Its essence is the dual crisis of low-end industry dilemma and cost inflation strangled by the "global demand winter" encountered by the "outward oriented economic dependence".

safety warning

01A shooting incident occurred in Sweden, resulting in at least three deaths

A shooting occurred in the center of Uppsala, the fourth largest city in Sweden, resulting in the death of three men aged 15 to 20. Suspected of committing a crime and fled on an electric scooter.

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• The number of shooting incidents in Sweden reached 147 in 2024, a 63% increase from 2022, of which 65% were directly related to gang fires. The death rate of gang conflicts in Uppsala province has doubled within two years, forming a vicious cycle of "street fires - police suppression - escalating retaliation".

• In 2024, the Swedish police seized a record high number of illegal firearms, of which 70% flowed into the Balkans and Eastern European black markets. Light transportation such as electric scooters became a "mobile arsenal", giving violent crimes a "guerrilla warfare" characteristic.

• The street gunfire in Uppsala not only claimed three young lives, but also shattered Sweden's old dream of a 'peaceful oasis'. This Nordic country, once known for its high welfare and low crime rate, is sliding into one of the most dangerous violent whirlpools in Europe.

Financial News

The main contract for lithium carbonate, 2507, plummeted 2.16% during trading, hitting a new low of 63380 yuan/ton.

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• Lithium carbonate is the core raw material for power batteries and energy storage batteries in new energy vehicles. This round of market trend is essentially the pain of the lithium industry's transition from resource dividends to cost strangulation. This crisis is not only a "stress test" for leading companies such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, but also an opportunity for a "value reassessment" of the global lithium industry chain.

Today's Sharp Review

When the far right wing in Germany uses "Germany First" to tear apart the democratic fabric, the smoke of the Red Sea ignites geopolitical games through the "ceasefire agreement", the manufacturing industry in ASEAN sheds its "world factory" halo in the cost killing, and the gunshots in Sweden violently strike the foundation of welfare society - just like the millennium old saying "dependent on each other, lips perish and teeth cold" that appears in the texture of globalization: any crack today is never an independent lesion, but a hypoxic alarm issued by the symbiotic system of civilizations.