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There is no need to take credit in life, no mistakes are credit

Today in history:306 years ago, the representative work of the English literary giant Daniel Defoerobinson crusoeComing out. This novel tells the story of the protagonist Robinson Crusoe, who lives alone on a deserted island for 28 years after a shipwreck and eventually returns to the civilized world. Robinson's adventurous spirit inspires us that when fate is thrown into a corner, the power within is the true ark.

Political Dynamics

01The US Supreme Court suspends the deportation plan for Venezuelan immigrants

The US Supreme Court suspends the Trump administration's plan to deport Venezuelan immigrants, ruling that it citesThe Foreign Enemy Act of 1798 was deemed inappropriate.

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• In 1798, the relationship between the United States and France deteriorated due to France's bribery of American diplomats. The US Congress passed the Foreign Enemy Act as part of the series of bills known as the Sedition Act. The legislative intention was to authorize the president to detain or expel citizens of enemy countries during wartime to prevent internal subversion.

• Venezuela, with the world's largest oil reserves, has become a 'failed state laboratory' due to corruption and sanctions. About 200000 to 300000 citizens flee each year.

• The continuous testing of legal boundaries by administrative power isseparation of powersSigns of failure.

Military strategy and tactics

01British fighter jets intercept Russian aircraft near the Baltic Sea

RAFTyphoon fighter jets intercepted Russian military aircraft twice in the international airspace of the Baltic Sea.

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• The incident occurred in Kaliningrad, which is the airspace bordering Russia with Poland and Lithuania, and also a long-standing hotspot of confrontation between Russia and NATO. In the past year, British fighter jets have carried out over 50 similar missions, an increase of 40% in frequency compared to 2022.

• The essence of Kaliningrad is that Russia leverages the largest strategic panic with the smallest geographical unit. It forces NATO to oscillate between "escalating confrontation" and "appeasement compromise".

Economic Observation

01Thai government establishes committee to select new central bank governor

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• The central bank insists on a 2.5%benchmark interest rateTo curb inflation, maintain stability of the Thai baht, and uphold the independence principle of the central bank. The government advocates interest rate cuts to stimulate the economic plan.

• In 2001, the Thaksin government pressured the central bank to cut interest rates, leading to a large-scale withdrawal of foreign investment in 2006, which became one of the triggers for the coup. In recent years, Türkiye's political intervention in the central bank has devalued the lira by 80%, and inflation has soared to 85%, which can serve as a warning.

• The government hopes that the central bank will become an "economic booster", while the central bank sees itself as a "gatekeeper of financial stability". This selection is essentially a game of Thailand's economic dominance.

safety warning

01Two Singaporean citizens arrested for illegal arms trading in the Philippines

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• During the Philippine election period, Manila has become a transit point for illegal firearms, and according to customs records in 2023, about 23% of intercepted smuggled weapons showed a destination in Manila.

• Democratic elections are eroding democracy itself

Financial News

The main gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange broke through the 800 yuan/gram mark, setting a new historical high.

Qingqiao's viewpoint:

• The gold market presents a typical dual wheel driving feature of 'safe haven+anti inflation'. The gold price may face adjustment pressure in the short term, but its upward trend remains unchanged in the medium to long term.

Today's Sharp Review

When the system fails, humanity will return tothe law of the jungleFrom the interest rate dispute in Bangkok to the black trade in Manila, from the legal game in Washington to the aerial confrontation in London, contemporary society seems to operate within the system, but is actually drifting in instinct. Only by recognizing this can we hold onto the last beacon of rationality in the ebb of civilization.